Crowd-Out in Past Medicaid Expansions
While national estimates of crowd-out have varied significantly across studies
according to the methodology employed, the databases used, and the specific question
investigated (estimates range from 12 percent to 50 percent), health services research has indicated
that the overall extent of crowd-out as a result of past Medicaid expansions has
been relatively low:
- Of the children who became eligible for Medicaid through expansion programs, the
estimated percentage who previously had private insurance coverage and dropped their
coverage to enroll in the Medicaid program is between 6 percent and 15 percent
(Blumberg, Dubay, and Norton. Survey of Income and Program Participation, 1990).
- Evaluations of crowd-out in State-specific children’s health insurance programs
conducted in Minnesota and Florida indicated that very
few (between 1 percent and 4 percent) of enrollees in the programs previously had private coverage.
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Crowd-Out 
