AAAs in Cohort

n x [(smoking prevalence) x (AAA prevalence in ever smokers) + (1- smoking prevalence) x (AAA prevalence in never smokers)]

Ever smokers

AAAs in ever smokers:
   n X (smoking prevalence) X (AAA prevalence in ever smokers)

AAA-related deaths at 5 years with no screening:
   n X (AAAs in ever smokers / AAAs in cohort) X (1 - e^{(-AAA mortality rate x 5)} )

AAA-related deaths at 5 years if invited for screening:
   n X (AAAs in ever smokers / AAAs in cohort) X (1 - e^{(-AAA mortality rate x 5) x OR reduction in AAA-related death with screening)} )

Never smokers

AAAs in never smokers:
   n X (AAA prevalence in never smokers) X (1 - smoking prevalence)

AAA-related deaths at 5 years with no screening:
   n X (AAAs in never smokers / AAAs in cohort) X (1 - e^{(-AAA mortality rate x 5)} )

AAA-related deaths at 5 years if invited for screening:
   n X (AAAs in never smokers / AAAs in cohort) X (1 - e^{(-AAA mortality rate x 5) x OR reduction in AAA-related death with screening)} )