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Table 4. Probability of Adult Obesity (BMI >30) Based on Childhood BMI Percentile Measures at Various Ages

Study ID Overweight Measure in Childhood, BMI percentile Child's Age When Measured Adult's Age when Measured Probability of Adult Overweight
(Male & Female combined)
Probability of Adult Overweight
(Males)
Probability of Adult Overweight
(Females)
Gortmaker, 199366
(n=10,039)
80% White, 14% Black, 6% Hispanic 51% Female
> 95 16-24 23-31 - .77a .66a
Freedman, 200157
(n=2617)
67% White, 32% Black, 57% Female
< 50 5-27 18-37 .07 - -
Freedman, 200157
(as above)
85-94 5-27 18-37 .51 - -
Freedman, 200157
(as above)
> 95 5-27 18-37 .77 - -
Guo 200258
(n=347)
100% White, 52% female
> 75
> 85
> 95
3 35 -
-
.1
.1
.2
.14
.17
.24
Guo 200258
(as above)
> 75
> 85
> 95
8 35 - .1
.1
.2
.16
.23
.46
Guo 200258
(as above)
> 75
> 85
> 95
13 35 - .2
.2
.5
.16
.27
.64
Guo 200258
(as above)
> 75
> 85
> 95
18 35 - .2
.3
.8
.15
.26
.68

aIn this study adult overweight was defined as >95%ile on NHANES.

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