Screening for HIV: Review of the Evidence, Appendix Table. Base-Case Assumptions for Outcomes Tables (Table 5) of Counseling and One-Time Screening for HIV Infection

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You Are Here: AHRQ Home > Clinical Information > U.S. Preventive Services Task Force > Topic Index > Screening: HIV > Review of the Evidence

Appendix Table. Base-Case Assumptions for Outcomes Tables (Table 5) of Counseling and One-Time Screening for HIV Infection

Base-Case Assumptions	Values Used in Outcomes Table	Source, Year (Reference)
Prevalence of HIV infection	Average-risk: 0.3% High-risk: 5%-15%	CDC, 2003³ McQuillan, et al., 1997²⁷¹ Valleroy, et al., 2000²⁷² Holmberg, 1996²⁷³
Yield of partner notification (newly diagnosed HIV infection per index patient)	0.08-0.23	Macke and Maher, 1999²⁷⁴ CDC, 2003²⁷⁵
Accuracy of standard testing	>99%	Weber, et al., 1995²⁷⁶ McAlpine, et al., 1994 ²⁷⁷ CDC, 1990⁴⁵ CDC, 1988⁴⁶
Proportion of HIV-positive patients who receive test results	79%-93%	Erickson, et al., 1990³⁰ Hightow, et al., 2003¹²⁰ CDC, 2004⁴⁰ Molitor, et al., 1999¹¹⁹
Proportion of patients who would qualify for treatment (assuming only patients with CD4 count < 0.200 × 10⁹ cells/L treated)	12%-43%	Samet, et al., 2001¹¹² Katz, et al., 1992¹¹³ Luby, et al., 1994¹¹⁴ Hutchinson, et al., 1991¹¹⁵ Klein, et al., 2003²⁶
Proportion of patients qualifying for antiretroviral therapy who would receive it	53%-85%	Stall, et al., 2001¹²⁹ Cunningham, et al., 2000¹³⁰ Kaplan, et al., 1999¹³¹ McNaghten, et al., 2003¹³²
3-y risk for clinical progression or death in untreated patients with CD4 count < 0.200 × 10⁹ cells/L	86% (95% CI, 77%-93%)	Mellors, et al., 1997⁷
Relative risk for clinical progression or death with HAART compared to no treatment	0.35 (95% CI, 0.25-0.47)	Calculated from Jordan, et al., 2002¹³³
Background rate of myocardial infarction (cases per 3 person-years)	0.00158 (95% CI, 0.000508-0.00487)	Calculated from Friis-Moller, 2003²²⁷
Relative risk for myocardial infarction with HAART after 2-4 y compared to no treatment	7.73 (95% CI, 2.42-24.71)	Calculated from Friis-Moller, 2003²²⁷
Background rate of cardio- or cerebrovascular (myocardial infarction, stroke, or invasive cardiovascular procedure) events (cases per 3 person-years)	0.0037 (95% CI, 0.0018-0.00770)	Calculated from Writing Group of the DAD Study, 2004²²⁹
Relative risk for cardiovascular or cerebrovascular events with HAART after 2-4 y compared to no treatment	5.00 (95% CI, 2.31-10.82)	Calculated from Writing Group of the DAD Study, 2004²²⁹
Relative risk for spread of disease	Unable to estimate

^aNotes: CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; DAD = Data collection of Adverse events of anti-HIV Drugs; HAART = highly active antiretroviral therapy.

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