Supply-Side Modeling: A 3-Step Program (Text Version)

Slide presentation from the AHRQ 2011 conference.

On September 21, 2011, Chapin White made this presentation at the 2011 Annual Conference. Select to access the PowerPoint® presentation (1 MB). Plugin Software Help.


Slide 1

Supply-Side Modeling: A 3-Step Program

Supply-side Modeling: A 3-step Program

Chapin White, PhD
Center for Studying Health System Change
Sept. 21, 2011
cwhite@hschange.org

The views expressed are my own and not those of the Center for Studying Health System Change, the Congressional Budget Office, or any other organization.

Slide 2

Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem

Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem

Slide 3

The World, pre-Affordable Care Act (ACA)

The World, pre-Affordable Care Act (ACA)

A line graph compares Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA, with Supply P, pre-ACA.

Slide 4

The World, post-ACA

The World, post-ACA

A line graph compares Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA, with Out-of-pocket P, post-ACA, Supply P, pre-ACA, and Supply P, post-ACA.

Slide 5

Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem

Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem

  • We don't know the supply curve.
  • When supply and demand are pushed in different directions, which side wins?

Slide 6

Step 2: Why Do We Have this Problem?

Step 2: Why Do We Have this Problem?

  • The siren song of RAND:
    • Gives exactly the right answer.
    • But it's the wrong question.
  • RAND supported one line of policymaking:
    • Patient cost sharing.
  • The action today is largely on the supply side.

Slide 7

Step 3: The Way Forward

Step 3: The Way Forward

  • Acknowledge that we have a problem—Check.
  • Prioritize the HOBOD ($000b) parameters:
    • Hospital supply curve.
    • Post-acute supply curve.
    • Provider responses to bundling/capitation.
  • Short-term: Scavenge parameters, get closer to being approximately right.
  • Medium-term: Refine parameters.
  • Long-term: Collect data on supply side.
Current as of March 2012
Internet Citation: Supply-Side Modeling: A 3-Step Program (Text Version). March 2012. Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Rockville, MD. http://www.ahrq.gov/news/events/conference/2011/white/index.html