AHRQ Issue Brief: Improved Diagnostic Accuracy Through Probability-Based Diagnosis
Improved Diagnostic Accuracy Through Probability-Based Diagnosis, a new issue brief from AHRQ, highlights why understanding probability and managing related uncertainty are vital for making accurate, timely diagnoses.
Despite discussion around the need to improve diagnosis, probabilistic reasoning has not been emphasized as a core competency. This brief presents a framework that outlines the diagnostic process and highlights the role of probabilistic understanding at each step. It highlights what information is needed to help clinicians make accurate probability assessments and propose innovative methods to train clinicians on their probabilistic reasoning skills for improving diagnostic decision-making. The authors provide fundamental concepts for understanding probability and methods to teach and inform probability for diagnostic decision-making, and they suggest a future vision for probabilistic diagnostic decisions.