Supply-Side Modeling: A 3-Step Program (Text Version)
On September 21, 2011, Chapin White made this presentation at the 2011 Annual Conference. Select to access the PowerPoint® presentation (1 MB). Plugin Software Help.
Slide 1
Supply-side Modeling: A 3-step Program
Chapin White, PhD
Center for Studying Health System Change
Sept. 21, 2011
cwhite@hschange.org
The views expressed are my own and not those of the Center for Studying Health System Change, the Congressional Budget Office, or any other organization.
Slide 2
Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem
Slide 3
The World, pre-Affordable Care Act (ACA)
A line graph compares Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA, with Supply P, pre-ACA.
Slide 4
The World, post-ACA
A line graph compares Out-of-pocket P, pre-ACA, with Out-of-pocket P, post-ACA, Supply P, pre-ACA, and Supply P, post-ACA.
Slide 5
Step 1: Admit You Have a Problem
- We don't know the supply curve.
- When supply and demand are pushed in different directions, which side wins?
Slide 6
Step 2: Why Do We Have this Problem?
- The siren song of RAND:
- Gives exactly the right answer.
- But it's the wrong question.
- RAND supported one line of policymaking:
- Patient cost sharing.
- The action today is largely on the supply side.
Slide 7
Step 3: The Way Forward
- Acknowledge that we have a problem—Check.
- Prioritize the HOBOD ($000b) parameters:
- Hospital supply curve.
- Post-acute supply curve.
- Provider responses to bundling/capitation.
- Short-term: Scavenge parameters, get closer to being approximately right.
- Medium-term: Refine parameters.
- Long-term: Collect data on supply side.
