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Research Studies is a compilation of published research articles funded by AHRQ or authored by AHRQ researchers.
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1 to 1 of 1 Research Studies DisplayedGolmakani MK, Hubbard RA, Miglioretti DL
Nonhomogeneous Markov chain for estimating the cumulative risk of multiple false positive screening tests.
This study addressed the general challenge of estimating the cumulative risk of multiple false positive test results. The authors proposed a nonhomogeneous multistate model to describe the screening process including competing events and developed alternative approaches for estimating the cumulative risk of multiple false positive results using this multistate model based on existing estimators for the cumulative risk of a single false positive. The multistate model was based on existing estimators for the cumulative risk of a single false positive. They compared the performance of the newly proposed models through simulation studies and illustrated model performance using data on screening mammography from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. They found that in the context of screening mammography that the cumulative risk of multiple false positive results is high. For a high-risk individual, the cumulative probability of at least two false positive mammography results after 10 rounds of annual screening is 40.4.
AHRQ-funded; HS018366.
Citation: Golmakani MK, Hubbard RA, Miglioretti DL .
Nonhomogeneous Markov chain for estimating the cumulative risk of multiple false positive screening tests.
Biometrics 2022 Sep;78(3):1244-56. doi: 10.1111/biom.13484..
Keywords: Research Methodologies, Screening, Imaging, Cancer: Breast Cancer, Cancer